甘肃省民勤县人口外流影响效果研究

自上世纪50年代以来,甘肃省民勤县的人口外流始终保持着活跃之势。调查表明,最近10年间的各类外流人口估计超过6万人,"高考移民"成为本地移民文化的主要内容;人口外流的关键原因是水资源的短缺以及由此引起的生存环境恶化。人口外流的影响如何?本文利用民勤县人口外流专题调查、人口统计及人口抽样调查等资料进行综合分析,验证了人口外流对总人口自然变动的直接干预作用,揭示了人口外流对农村社区发展的复杂影响效果。     

The Danish psychosocial work environment and symptoms of stress: the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence (SOC) on stress symptoms and on the association between perceived psychosocial work environment and stress symptoms. The sample includes 2053 Danish employees from 52 workplaces. Hierarchical regression models were applied for each measure of stress. The results strongly supported the presence of a main effect for SOC. People with high levels of SOC experienced fewer stress symptoms. A mediating effect of SOC was also supported. Thus, SOC in part explained the association between work environment and stress symptoms. In addition, some support for a moderating effect of SOC was found, suggesting that people with higher SOC coped more efficiently with work environmental strain that people with lower SOC. Taken together the regression models explained 11-32% of the variance in stress symptoms. The results suggest that measures of individual factors such as SOC should be included in analyses of the effects of work environmental factors on stress and well-being.     

人口城市化的差别效应和城乡人力资源开发

城市化进程中的城乡人力资源开发 ,必须充分注意城市化的城乡差别效应。本文从生育率、文化素质、就业和人口分布等方面分析了城市化的差别人口学效应 ,提出了城市化推动型的城乡人力资源协调开发等观点     

Control at work: a generalized resource factor for the prevention of musculoskeletal symptoms?

During the last two decades two potent groups of predictors for work-related musculoskeletal problems have been identified: physical work load and poor psychosocial working conditions. However, little is known about their combined effects. In this study the buffering effect of control at work with respect to the negative effects of psychological demands and physical work load on musculoskeletal problems is examined. All study variables were sampled from 431 people working in geriatric nursing homes in Germany by means of questionnaires. Main effects and interactions were tested with multiple regression analysis. The results showed that control buffered the effects of high psychological demands, but not of high physical work load; the buffering effect of control was observed only when physical work load was low. The combined effects of demands and physical work load were over-additive. Thus, the power of different predictors for musculoskeletal symptoms depended on the level of other predictors. This suggests that the efficiency of certain strategies for the prevention of musculoskeletal problems is likely to depend on the level of risk factors, with different strategies being appropriate for different levels of risk.     

农村流动儿童的群体特征及对其义务教育的不利影响

以武昌区实地调研的调查数据和访谈为基本材料,分析了农村流动儿童的群体特征:流动性强、城市化水平高、家庭贫困、类别不平衡等以及这些特征对其接受义务教育的负面影响。同时,针对这些问题提出政策建议:政府加大教育投入,降低农村流动儿童接受义务教育的成本;均衡配置教育资源,保障农村流动儿童义务教育的公平;通过社会援助,帮助提高流动儿童义务教育质量等。     

The impact of sense of coherence and high-demand/low-control job environment on self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators

Sense of Coherence (SOC) is a new concept belonging to a salutogenic paradigm, proposing to explain health as contrasted to disease, a pathogenic paradigm. The Job Demand-Control (JDC) model of job stress suggests that the combination of high job demands and low job control, defined as job strain, is strongly associated with adverse health consequences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between SOC and the JDC model in assessment of negative job effects within three pathogenically defined contexts: self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators, assessing the explanatory value of SOC for such variables. The study was conducted with 103 employees of social-welfare and social-insurance agencies in Sweden. A questionnaire related to job conditions, health and burnout was administered, and blood samples were collected and analysed for serum concentrations of cortisol, prolactin and immunoglobulin G. Multiple-regression models were calculated including variables from all three contexts. In the analyses, a distinction was made between emotional job strain and quantitative job strain. The SOC interacted with emotional job strain, but the interaction also increased the independent effect of emotional job strain. The independent effect of SOC disappeared in most models when interaction was included. It is concluded that studies of job strain-effects according to the JDC model should include the SOC as an interaction factor.     

宪法原则的产生及其效力探讨

宪法原则是宪法学的基本范畴之一,也是产生具体宪法规范、体现宪法价值、指导宪政实践的最高准则。宪法原则的产生,源于表征和满足宪法正当性的需要,是对人类问题意识演进的高度抽象,是人类不断探索制衡政治权力的历史结果,也是以权力范畴为中心安排宪法制度的逻辑需要。宪法原则的效力指涉三个层面:宪法原则效力的纬度,指宪法原则的效力空间范围;宪法原则效力的向度,指宪法原则的拘束对象和作用领域;宪法原则的适度,指宪法原则的正当性和合法性。     

Foreign Exchange Intervention by the Bank of Japan: Bayesian Analysis Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model

A bivariate stochastic volatility model is employed to measure the effect of intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on daily returns and volume in the USD/YEN foreign exchange market. Missing observations are accounted for, and a data-based Wishart prior for the precision matrix of the errors to the transition equation that is in line with the likelihood is suggested. Empirical results suggest there is strong conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean-corrected volume measure, as well as contemporaneous correlation in the errors to both the observation and transition equations. A threshold model is used for the BOJ reaction function, which is estimated jointly with the bivariate stochastic volatility model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. This accounts for endogeneity between volatility in the market and the BOJ reaction function, something that has hindered much previous empirical analysis in the literature on central bank intervention. The empirical results suggest there was a shift in behavior by the BOJ, with a movement away from a policy of market stabilization and toward a role of support for domestic monetary policy objectives. Throughout, we observe “leaning against the wind” behavior, something that is a feature of most previous empirical analysis of central bank intervention. A comparison with a bivariate EGARCH model suggests that the bivariate stochastic volatility model produces estimates that better capture spikes in in-sample volatility. This is important in improving estimates of a central bank reaction function because it is at these periods of high daily volatility that central banks more frequently intervene.     

区域差异化个税制建立研究?

我国居民的贫富差距状况日益严重,收入差距问题已俨然成为我国现阶段社会普遍关注并亟待解决的社会问题。个人所得税作为直接税的重要税种,对调节收入分配、促进社会公平具有重要作用。在这次综合与分类相结合个税税制改革中,应考虑我国地区收入、消费水平差异大,地区发展不平衡,物价水平区域差异大、区域税源结构差异等的基本国情,建立综合与分类相结合的区域差异化个税体制。     

Site-Specific Applications of Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment: Review of the Literature Since 2000

Whether and to what extent contaminated sites harm ecologic and human health are topics of considerable interest, but also considerable uncertainty. Several federal and state agencies have approved the use of some or many aspects of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but its site-specific application has often been limited to high-profile sites and large projects. Nonetheless, times are changing: newly developed software tools, and recent federal and state guidance documents formalizing PRA procedures, now make PRA a readily available method of analysis for even small-scale projects. This article presents and discusses a broad review of PRA literature published since 2000.